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What sectors have resisted in 2019?

December 03, 2019

The stagnation of the economy is no surprise to anyone. In the first three quarters of the year the economy has fallen -0.02% compared to the same period of the previous year.

Despite the environment, there are sectors that continue to show progress. Next, a list of those relevant sectors that advance more than 2% per year, which is believed to be the potential of the economy.

The beverage and tobacco industry grew 2.4% in the January-September period. Together with the manufacture of computer and communication equipment (6.0%) and transportation equipment (3.9%), they are the only branches with growth of the 21 that make up the manufacturing industry.

The first is an industry oriented towards basic consumption, while the other two are more linked to exports.

Retail trade advanced 2.6%. Increased wages at the base of the pyramid, modest job creation, and social programs drive the consumption of basic goods.

This contrasts with the fall in the consumption of durable goods, which are more linked to confidence and credit.

Air transport (7.0%) and freight transport (2.0%) maintain growth, although they slow down compared to previous years. A greater participation of low-cost airlines helps the sector adapt to the new economic scenario.

Electronic information processing (ex: software development, apps, web page hosting) grows 5.6%. The business support service (where administrative, outsourcing and collection services are found) grew 5.2%. This activity faces high uncertainty due to the proposal to reform the subcontracting scheme, which would affect the dynamics of this service and potentially employment.

And finally, the agricultural sector advances 2.0%. So far this year, the sector's exports have grown 11.4% annually. The export area of this sector is one of the most dynamic in the economy.

The scenario is complicated. Investment is the key variable in the medium-term growth outlook. Although there are external factors that influence, in a relevant way, the approval of the T-MEC, the internal factors -trust, security, pro-business environment, cost of formality- will be the determining factors.

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