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New Wave Covid; Will it impact the economy?

According to government data, new infections amount to 12,821 daily cases, which confirms the third wave of the pandemic that our country is going through. Levels exceed even what was reached in the first wave. However, daily deaths have decreased, from an average of 600 daily in the first wave to 233 according to the latest recent data. The vaccination strategy that has focused on the elderly allows a reduction in mortality. New cases are now focused on the young population, mainly between 20-39 years old, although cases in children have also increased. The lower fatality in these segments of the population means that deaths have not risen so much in recent weeks, in relation to daily cases. The contagions are triggered in Baja California Sur, Campeche, Guerrero, Nayarit, Quintana Roo, Sinaloa, Veracruz and Yucatán and rebound considerably in CDMX, Colima, Edomex, Jalisco, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Tabasco and Tamaulipas. The first states are characterized by being tourist destinations. So far there have been no severe restrictions on business. People mobility indicators show certain stagnation, but they do not show significant reductions as in the first and second waves, which suggests that the population is taking reductions, either due to the perception of lower fatality or due to confidence in the effectiveness of the measures. vaccines. It is worth mentioning that important spikes in infections have also occurred in countries such as the United Kingdom, where vaccination already reaches the majority of the population. As in Mexico, deaths have not rebounded at the rate of new infections. We cannot rule out that there is also a lag factor between new cases of infection and hospitalizations and deaths. The next few weeks will be key to validating the effectiveness of the vaccines, without forgetting that only 16% of the population has received two doses.



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