According to the opportune indicator of economic activity (IOAE), the economy advanced 0.26% monthly in June, led by the tertiary sector (commerce and services) that grew 0.35%. The IOAE reading assumes that the industrial sector has contracted 0.69%.
However, implicitly the second quarter would have grown 1.94% quarterly and in annualized terms 8%, led by the services sector, which had a quarterly advance of 2.56% or 10.6% annualized.
It should be remembered that the GDP data does not necessarily coincide with the IOAE, but it does give a good sign of the rises and falls.
The weakness is located in the secondary sector that stagnates in the second quarter. In fact, the indicator has lagged since December last year, affected by disruptions in supply chains.
For the second semester it is foreseeable that the factor of the third wave will impact the dynamics of the economy. The services sector is vulnerable to mandatory and voluntary restrictions on mobility, which impact the capacity of establishments.
Uncertainty persists about the industrial sector and the restrictions it faces in supply chains, both in critical inputs for some industries and in shipping delays between Asia and America.
However, we are optimistic about the outlook for the export sector, given the strong demand in the US and the shortage of personnel north of the Bravo.
In any case, considering the levels of economic activity reached in the second quarter of this year, it is difficult for us to see such spectacular GDP growth in the second half.