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Winners and Losers of the Trade War

August 14, 2019

Imports from the United States have increased only 0.7% in the period Jan-June 2019 compared to the same period of 2018.

Trade tensions and tariffs have undoubtedly held back international trade.

China has been the hardest hit of all. US imports from that country have fallen 12.4% in the first half of the year, equivalent to 30,951 million dollars. Canadian exports to the US fall 1.1%.

Germany, immersed in an industrial recession, shows a marginal decrease of 0.1% in shipments to the US.

However, some countries have taken advantage of this situation. Mexico increases its exports to the US by 6.3%, equivalent to 10,663 million dollars.

South Korea reports an increase of 10.7%, while India 10%. These are, respectively, 3,788 and 2,683 additional dollars compared to the previous year. The United Kingdom (+ 5.7%), Ireland (+ 6.1%) and Italy (5.0%) with higher shipments to the US also stand out.

It could be said that Mexico has taken advantage of part of the demand that corresponded to China, and benefits from the geographical proximity to the largest market in the world.

It is most positive that Mexico is the winner in a context of trade friction.

We believe that in the case of Mexico it also responds to a global process of regionalization (North America), which still has a long way to go.

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