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Cold October for the national economy

November 06, 2019

According to AMIA data, auto exports plummeted
19.5% in October, affected by the GM strike and the shift in production to
electric cars by Ford. Even if we remove these companies from exports
they would have fallen 5.7%.

Car production falls 16.3%. The combination of these factors will be reflected
in manufacturing activity and in the trade balance, which had already shown
weak data as of September.

The US manufacturing survey has been in the contraction zone for 3 months.

Manufacturing weakness in our main market added to factors
internal operations already has visible effects on the Mexican industry.

WalMart reports a 2.3% nominal advance in same stores in October, a
very poor progress if one takes into account that inflation is 3.0% The low
sales growth becomes relevant as it is focused on the supply of
basic goods.

The weakness in October was already anticipated by the IMEF indicators, which
they remain in the contraction zone for both manufacturing and services.

This situation has persisted since May.

The economy grew 0.06% quarterly in Q3, and presented a fall of -0.44% in
annual terms. It seems that the fourth quarter begins with a major

If the rhythm of the industry does not recover, the economy would close the year with a
fall, for the first time since 2009.

A rethinking of economic policy, including tax policy, is urgently needed to
unlocking investment and putting companies at the center, which are the ones
they produce, create jobs and pay taxes.

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