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Exports Save 2019

What to expect for 2020

January 29, 2020

The estimate of the GDP that will be known tomorrow will oscillate between -0.1 and -0.2%. First negative figure since 2009. Probably private consumption barely advanced 0.7%. The investment would have fallen 5%. SHCP data show that public spending in real terms fell 1.8%

What prevented a clearly negative 2019?

Exports, although they were reduced in the end, achieved an acceptable growth in an adverse context.

According to INEGI data, exports of goods grew 2.3% during 2019. However, the last five months of last year showed contractions, in an environment where manufacturing production in the US fell by an average of 1%.

On the other hand, imports fell 1.9% in the aggregate for the year, although the December figure is 9.4% lower than the maximum of November 2018. It is a considerable setback that was not seen since the 2015-16 period. This fall is a reflection of the internal economic weakness and the contraction in the industrial apparatus.

In particular, capital imports presented a contraction of 8.9%, although they managed to stabilize in the last months of 2019. Currently the economy has a lower level of investment and imports than previous quarters.


What to expect

The improvement in trade tensions between the US and China will help strengthen external demand.

Regional manufacturing indicators show a rebound in January, which would help improve export data.

The combination of the approval of the TMEC and the EU-China Phase 1 agreement points to a moderate improvement in exports.

Regarding domestic demand, we do not see significant changes in an environment of low investment and restricted growth in employment.

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