The estimate of the GDP that will be known tomorrow will oscillate between -0.1 and -0.2%. First negative figure since 2009. Probably private consumption barely advanced 0.7%. The investment would have fallen 5%. SHCP data show that public spending in real terms fell 1.8%

What prevented a clearly negative 2019?

Exports, although they were reduced in the end, achieved an acceptable growth in an adverse context.

According to INEGI data, exports of goods grew 2.3% during 2019. However, the last five months of last year showed contractions, in an environment where manufacturing production in the US fell by an average of 1%.

On the other hand, imports fell 1.9% in the aggregate for the year, although the December figure is 9.4% lower than the maximum of November 2018. It is a considerable setback that was not seen since the 2015-16 period. This fall is a reflection of the internal economic weakness and the contraction in the industrial apparatus.

In particular, capital imports presented a contraction of 8.9%, although they managed to stabilize in the last months of 2019. Currently the economy has a lower level of investment and imports than previous quarters.

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What to expect

The improvement in trade tensions between the US and China will help strengthen external demand.

Regional manufacturing indicators show a rebound in January, which would help improve export data.

The combination of the approval of the TMEC and the EU-China Phase 1 agreement points to a moderate improvement in exports.

Regarding domestic demand, we do not see significant changes in an environment of low investment and restricted growth in employment.