The future is unpredictable, but it always reaches us
November 25, 2019
By: Jorge Gracia
Managing Partner of InterCapa / EconoFinanzas
The business environment has become particularly complex as far-reaching macro and micro trends merge with geo-political factors.
Demographic change will be one of the most relevant forces that will have impacts not seen in the industrial age.
Europe, Japan, China have entered a long-term phase of job loss. In the United States, the increase in working age people in the next twenty years will be a fraction of what it was in decades past.
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The implications are beginning to show in some industries. Auto sales in the US are at the same level as 1987. This is a yellow light for Mexican exports.
Global competition for the automotive market is more than intense. In an environment of increased competition and lower demand growth, Moody's recently downgraded the legendary Ford from investment.
In turn, technological change is generating few winners and many losers. The most emblematic case is retail. Amazon, E Bay, Ali Baba, they are displacing 20th century icons like Sears and JC Penney.
In industry and also in services, the implications of automation put hundreds of millions of jobs globally at risk. Mexico will not be able to escape this trend.
The golden age of globalization is behind us. China's industrial overcapacity and protectionism in the US have slowed investments in the manufacturing industry.
The unionists of the United States, through the Democrats, are pressing to include in the T-MEC guarantees that Mexico will have enough inspectors, who supervise the free voting of the workers in the election of unions in the assemblies.
The growth perspective of the markets must be analyzed objectively. The weight of productivity as a driver of economies and people's income will be the key.
These are just a few critical issues that we will be analyzing in the executive program
which begins in March 2020. It will be the starting point of the extraordinary Diploma in Finance offered by InterCapa / EconoFinanzas.
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