Mixed Data: The tipping point has not yet reached

The data of the trade balance for September show the strong impact of the technical stoppages of General Motors. Manufacturing exports fell 4.4% monthly in dollar terms compared to August.

This is consistent with car exports in units, which fell 7.1% annually in September. The GM strike, which affected the manufacturing industry, has just ended, so we expect a weak October for the industry.

Imports fell 2.4% monthly.

Those corresponding to capital goods (investment proxy) fell 3.6%, which suggests that investment remains depressed.

Also striking is the consumption of gasoline as of September (688 thousand barrels per day), which is the lowest level reported by Pemex since 2006. Although private gasoline has gained ground, the collapse of Pemex data in the last months.

Other consumption data are ANTAD sales, which barely advanced a nominal 1.6% (-1.4% in real terms) in September.

As a counterweight, the employment data in September was very good with seasonally adjusted data (approximately 65 thousand positions), higher than the 25 thousand positions that on average have been created per month in 2019.

Oil production also increased 1.3% in September. It has been 4 consecutive months avoiding drops in production.

Tomorrow the timely estimate of GDP for the third quarter will be known. Considering the data presented, it would be a surprise if the continuation of the stagnation was not confirmed.