Consumption: Between Slack Employment and
Higher Salaries
April 11, 2019
According to ANTAD data, retail sales grew only 0.6% annually in March (equal units), which is the lowest growth since April last year.
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WalMart (no longer part of ANTAD) sales advanced 4.4%, a better performance than its competitors.
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In both cases, the seasonal component influences, since Easter fell in March in 2018, which leaves a high comparison base. Under that logic, we would expect a (seasonal) rebound in sales in April.
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However, we believe that the general slowdown in retail sales will predominate, given the weakening of employment and a slowdown in remittances.
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The great exception could be the northern border, due to the 100% increase in the minimum wage and the reduction in VAT.
On the other hand, contractual salaries (under federal jurisdiction) advanced 6.5% nominal in March, equivalent to 2.4% in real terms, the highest increase since 2001.
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Those belonging to the local jurisdiction show advances of 10.2%, that is, 5.6% in real terms.
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The question remains as to which effect will predominate in the aggregate behavior of consumption, if that of less dynamic employment or that of higher wages and social transfers.
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We will probably see a positive performance of the sale of low value basic goods and a slow performance of durable goods.